Still down by more than 50% on all-time highs set in early January, Bitcoin is drawing sharp criticism from the mainstream media.
Both Forbes and the Wall Street Journal have suggested that an even bigger Bitcoin price crash is on the horizon. At the same time, however, analysis of Google search data and long-term Bitcoin growth patterns, suggests that the current Bitcoin price could start recovering as early as March 24th.
In December 2017, an anonymous Wall Street trader made waves by placing a $1 million bet on Bitcoin reaching $50,000 by the end of December 2018.As a result, it is clear that at least a few big league investors are confident that Bitcoin will go to the moon over the course of the next 9-months.
As for why some investors are confident that Bitcoin will reach $50K in 2018, there is a strong argument to be made that Bitcoin will soon recover right on track with its former long-term parabolic growth pattern. In fact, some analysts believe that March 24th this year will signal the end of an 85-day price pull-back which was (or at least should have been) entirely expected.
On February 4th this year, Thomas Lee, a financial market researcher from Fundstrat, postulated that while the Bitcoin price was falling, it was doing so in tandem with an expected V-shaped price pull-back, typical of 73% of other pull-backs since 2009. Much more importantly, Thomas Lee predicted that falling prices would continue for 85-days. After this period, the Bitcoin price should (in theory) climb back up to $20,000 by as early as late July.
Did you buy Bitcoin prior to the digital currency shedding 70% of its value over January and February? If so, a climb back to $20,000 by July, will be cause for some relief. However, if Fundstrat and Thomas Lee prove correct in their 85-day Bitcoin pull-back prediction, this itself could send cryptocurrency prices soaring much higher than even $50,000.
Over the past 3-months, Bitcoin has been subject to more bad press than at any time (so far) in the cryptocurrencies 9-year history.
What is important to note, however, is that when Fundstrat predicted that the Bitcoin price would start recovering in late March and early April, their prediction was based solely on analysis of historical Bitcoin price data. This being the case, if Bitcoin does start to recover on schedule with Fundstat’s 85-day pull-back prediction, this will imply that increased regulation and banking sector interference, actually poses little threat to Bitcoin in the long-term.
Needless to say, no one can predict with any certainty when (or even if) Bitcoin will rebound. This being the case, new investors shouldn’t rush to buy Bitcoin just yet. If, however, you are already holding Bitcoin, the next 6-weeks could prove to be very interesting.